Natural disasters and labor migration in Nepal
Publication id: shakya-2022-nepal-earthquake-labor-migration
Status: verified
Citation: Shakya, S., Basnet, S., & Paudel, J. (2022). Natural disasters and labor migration: Evidence from Nepal’s earthquake. World Development. Download PDF
Facts¶
Policy hook¶
Natural disasters disrupt economic livelihoods. One household response is labor migration—leaving home for employment elsewhere. Understanding how disasters trigger migration is critical for development policy, disaster response, and predicting population movements post-crisis. This paper examines whether major earthquakes causally increase international labor migration.
Main finding¶
The 2015 April earthquake in Nepal increased out-migration rates at the district level by 1.5 percentage points among severely affected districts compared to unaffected control districts. This effect is statistically significant and substantial given baseline migration rates, indicating that earthquakes trigger household-level migration responses as a livelihood adaptation strategy.
Data and setting¶
2015 Nepal earthquake with 14 severely affected districts (National Reconstruction Authority classification) versus 61 unaffected control districts. International labor migration measured through work permits from Nepal’s Department of International Employment (DoFE) for temporary contract workers. Data focuses on documented legal labor migration (approximately 85% of 2008–2015 international migration from Nepal to Gulf countries).
Research design (plain language)¶
Difference-in-differences research design exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in earthquake severity across districts. Interactive fixed effects (Bai 2009) augmented within DID framework to control for nationwide time trends and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity. Compares pre- and post-earthquake migration trends between affected and unaffected districts.
One caveat¶
Study focuses exclusively on documented legal labor migration via work permits; cannot examine undocumented/illegal labor migration due to lack of reliable data. Internal migration to India unexamined due to lack of regulation/documentation. Estimates may reflect both push effects (earthquake damage) and pull effects (reconstruction employment opportunities), which cannot be separately identified.
PDF or DOI¶
Why it matters¶
Earthquakes kill and destroy, but households also respond strategically by migrating for work. This paper shows the effect is real and substantial—natural disasters increase international labor migration, likely as households seek income to rebuild. For disaster response policy, the finding suggests that post-earthquake employment creation is a priority (not just housing or medical care)—without local jobs, migration becomes the livelihood strategy. For labor-receiving countries, earthquake-driven migration spikes may be predictable and temporary. For Nepal specifically, remittances from earthquake-displaced workers represented crucial income for affected households. The work complicates the narrative of “disaster-induced forced displacement”—many moves are not permanent relocations but temporary labor migration for reconstruction resources. This has implications for humanitarian policy: supporting in-place recovery may be more cost-effective than managing displacement when temporary migration for income is the household response.