The fracking boom and crime rates in rural American states
Publication id: shakya-2021-fracking-boom-rural-crime
Status: verified
Citation: Shakya, S., & Sohag, K. (2021). The fracking boom and crime rates in the rural American states: Some critical insights. The Extractive Industries and Society. Download PDF
Facts¶
Policy hook¶
The fracking boom transformed rural economies in states like Arkansas, North Dakota, and West Virginia, creating rapid population and employment changes. Sudden economic disruption and influx of transient workers may increase crime. The question is whether fracking booms causally increase crime rates and whether this effect is localized to rural areas where the disruption is most acute.
Main finding¶
States experiencing intense fracking booms (Arkansas, North Dakota, West Virginia) encountered significantly more crimes than comparison states post-2007, with an estimated annual victimization cost of $15.68 million (2008 dollars). Critically, this crime-shale boom link is specific to rural American states; the effect disappears when including states with fewer rural populations, indicating the phenomenon is context-dependent.
Data and setting¶
Treatment states: Arkansas, North Dakota, and West Virginia (50–60% rural population). Comparison group: other US states. FBI Uniform Crime Report data (Part-I and Part-II offenses), post-2007 fracking boom period. Esri shale gas production data and US Census Bureau rural classification. State-level covariates from UKCPR and other sources.
Research design (plain language)¶
Generalized Synthetic Control (GSC) approach with post-double-selection LASSO (PDSL) for high-dimensional covariate selection. Difference-in-differences estimation with parallel trends confirmed in pre-treatment period. Robustness checks include lagged models, contemporaneous models, and polynomial interaction specifications. Falsification tests confirm effect is specific to rural states.
One caveat¶
Crime-shale boom relationship is rural-specific only; effect does not generalize to urbanized areas. Study focuses on documented crime rates without examining unreported crime. Causality chain between fracking activities and crime mechanisms (labor migration, population influx, income shocks) requires inference rather than direct measurement.
PDF or DOI¶
Why it matters¶
Natural resource booms create winners and losers. This paper reveals a significant downside: real crime increases in rural fracking communities. The $15.68 million annual victimization cost is substantial for small rural communities where per-capita crime damage is particularly acute. For resource-dependent rural economies, the finding suggests that boom-time growth comes with public safety costs that offset economic gains for residents. For policymakers approving extraction projects, it underscores the need for community investment beyond royalties—law enforcement, social services, and housing infrastructure should scale with boom-time population influx. For federal Indian nations and rural counties considering resource extraction, the paper provides quantitative evidence of social costs. The rural-specificity is important: boom effects differ dramatically between rural and urban contexts, suggesting that energy policy should distinguish between community types and their capacity to absorb rapid change.